help secure the future of the NDIS. But what will the program mean for children and families?

Mark Butler, Minister for Disability and the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS), unveiled a new initiative today aimed at "securing the future" of the NDIS through essential NDIS reforms. At the core of this initiative lies a transition: children under nine who have mild to moderate developmental delays or autism will move from the NDIS to a new early childhood support program named Thriving Kids. Addressing the National Press Club, Butler stated that the NDIS was never designed to cater to this age group—and right now, it is failing to meet their requirements. The Thriving Kids program will be funded collaboratively by the federal government, along with state and territory governments. The Commonwealth has pledged an initial A$2 billion for the program. Set to launch in July 2026, the Thriving Kids program will be phased in over the subsequent 12 months. Starting from mid-2027, children in this category will no longer join the NDIS; instead, they will receive support via the Thriving Kids initiative. So, what is driving this change, and is it a sound move?

Since regaining office in 2022, the Labor government has implemented several NDIS reforms aimed at addressing the rising costs of the program. According to Butler, much work remains to get the scheme back on track, particularly in two critical areas: reverting the scheme to its original purpose of providing support for individuals with significant and long-term care needs, and ensuring the scheme's financial sustainability from a budgetary perspective. 

Back in 2011, the initial estimates for the NDIS projected that it would cover 411,000 participants at an annual cost of $13.6 billion. Today, however, the number of participants has exceeded 740,000, and by 2029, the cost of the scheme is expected to reach $64 billion. The government has set a target to reduce the scheme’s annual growth rate from 22% to 8% by next year, though Butler described this as merely an interim step, emphasizing that growth must be further limited. 

Children under 15 are notably overrepresented in the NDIS, making up nearly half of all participants. Half of the new enrollees are under nine years old, and across the nation, one out of every ten six-year-olds is enrolled in the NDIS. Butler pointed out that families are not to blame for this situation; rather, the issue arises from a lack of alternative support systems. This gap was underscored in the NDIS Review, which also recommended the development of “foundational supports” for people with disabilities outside the NDIS, including early childhood support initiatives. 

Recent negotiations between the federal government and state/territory governments regarding the establishment of these foundational supports have unfortunately stalled. In response to these challenges, the creation of the Thriving Kids program is intended to provide enhanced support for children while simultaneously alleviating budgetary pressures on the NDIS.

Concerns have lingered for some time that the NDIS reforms fail to serve certain young children effectively. Best practice in early childhood support and intervention typically recommends that children be integrated into mainstream environments—places where they live, play, and learn. Parents and caregivers of young children enrolled in the NDIS receive individual funding, which they use to pay for therapies and other support services. For the most part, these services are delivered through one-to-one sessions outside the aforementioned mainstream settings. For families, navigating the NDIS can be confusing and challenging: they must choose between various support options and providers to determine what will best meet their child's needs. Unlike the NDIS, which provides individualized funding to families, the Thriving Kids program will make use of existing systems, including: Infant, child, and maternal health systems (such as community-based nurses who conduct health and developmental check-ups for children from birth to 3.5 years old), General Practitioners (GPs), early learning centres, community centres, and schools. These are services that most families already engage with. The minister notes that this approach should create a more integrated, universal support offering—one that benefits all children, not just those with disabilities. New Medicare items will be introduced, allowing families to continue accessing allied health services like occupational therapy, speech pathology, and psychosocial therapy. However, it remains unclear whether families will need to contribute to the cost of these services. Whether the Thriving Kids program lives up to all its promises will depend on two key factors: the program’s design and its ability to be implemented effectively—especially given the relatively short time frame. While the government has stated that the NDIS access processes will remain unchanged until 2027, several families have reported in the past six months that their children underwent reassessments and were ultimately deemed ineligible for the scheme. The problem is that these families have few other support options to turn to. As such, a critical step will be ensuring that children and their families do not miss out on necessary support while the Thriving Kids program is being set up.